Moody’s Investor Service has
recently downgraded the credit
ratings of sixteen Spanish banks due to
a) Recession
in the country and weak economic forecast
b) Increase
in the number of loan defaults
c) Reduced
ability of the government to support debtors
d) Little
access to funding sources due to Eurozone debt crisis
Out of the sixteen, the outlook
for ten banks remains negative while the remaining banks outlook will be under
review. The banks that have been downgraded include two of the largest Spanish
banks (Santander and BBVA). Banks that have been downgraded to ‘A3’ are
1. Banco
Santander SA (Santander’s UK based
subsidiary Santander UK PLC has also been downgraded.)
2. Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) SA.
3. Banco
Espanol de Credito
4. Unicaja Banco SA
5. Banco
Popular Espanol
(Note: Santander UK is downgraded to A2. Spanish government’s rating is A3)
According to Moody’s official
statement, "The Spanish economy has
fallen back into recession in first-quarter 2012, and Moody's does not expect
conditions to improve during 2012. Moreover, the real-estate crisis that began
in 2008 is ongoing, and unemployment has risen to very high levels."
Unemployment
The reasons cited are neither exaggerated
nor an overstatement. Spain has the highest unemployment rate of 24.1% in the entire 17 member Eurozone bloc,
higher than Greece. Its future outlook
is even worse as its employment rate is expected to touch 25% mark in 2013, which practically means that every 1 in 4th
person in the labour force will be unemployed. This also translates into
decrease in income taxes and increase in unemployment benefits.
Interest Rates
As Spain’s economic condition worsens,
the interest rates are increasing which makes borrowing more expensive. When
Germans borrow money for 10 years, then they pay only 1.75% interest rate while Spain is offering about 6% on the 10 year note but still
finding it difficult to get any funding.
Who is responsible?
In short, the general public and
the government, both are responsible
for the crisis.
When Euro was launched in Spain
in 1999, the interest rates had fallen
to record lows, borrowing had become extremely cheap. Naturally, the Spanish
banks and financial institutions, property dealers and developers and the
general public, everyone (except the
government) went on a borrowing spree. Most economist agree that timely government intervention at that time could have prevented the current crisis.
Once their liquidity was
ballooned, they went on a shopping spree and invested billions in Spanish
property. The increase in demand for property pushed up the prices. Although property prices were increasing in
other European countries as well, (e.g. UK) but Spain’s price push was
approximately three times more than UK’s.
Eventually the bubble burst and prices started
falling. The construction industry was the first to fall with thousands of
construction workers losing their jobs. Home owners who had taken out mortgage
on their property were left perplexed --- the value of their property was
falling --- interest rate wasn’t.
Surprisingly, it was like the beginning
of 2008 global financial crisis all over again --- although this time the epicenter
is Spain and it is not expected to go global, at least not in the near future. According
to EU and IMF’s estimate, if Spain sticks to its plans and delivers on its
promises then all of this should be over within the next three to five years.
Your comments and feedback are always appreciated.
Sarfaraz A.K.sarfaraz@when.com
Half-Bridge (Return to main page)
Your comments and feedback are always appreciated.
Sarfaraz A.K.sarfaraz@when.com
Half-Bridge (Return to main page)